All two wheelers in India to be electric by 2026-27: NITI Aayog


penetration of electric two wheeler India is growing at a pace never seen before. Despite the related developments, buyers are flocking to buy electric two-wheelers. NITI Aayog has come out with a report that predicts the adoption of electric vehicles in the country. The report has been launched in partnership with TIFAC and is titled ‘Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India’.

NITI Aayog And TIFAC created a tool to make these predictions. They came up with eight scenarios that have been developed to analyze the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country.

In the most optimistic scenario, the report estimates 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY 2026-27. In another scenario, which is technology driven and where existing incentives are withdrawn by 2024, the report predicts 72% penetration by 2031.

During the launch of the report, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, “This report provides a much needed tool to industry, researchers, academia and policy makers to analyze and respond to various scenarios. It can also be easily replicated in other segments like four wheelers without any hassle.”

Here are eight scenarios considered by NITI Aayog and TIFAC:

  1. challenging spread
  2. performance driven
  3. low battery cost
  4. technology driven
  5. Incentive Driven
  6. battery cost challenge
  7. same performance
  8. optimistic

The future scenarios have been constructed on the basis of three key factors that influence the market penetration of electric two wheelers: (i) demand incentives (ii) cost of the battery (iii) vehicle performance in terms of both range and power. performance.

Four broad bottleneck levels have been identified for the eight scenarios in terms of installed vehicle manufacturing capacity and available charging infrastructure: (i) complete bottleneck (where both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are bottlenecks) (ii) production bottleneck ( where only vehicle production is a constraint) (iii) charge constraint (where only the charging infrastructure is a constraint) (iv) no constraint.

In a ‘technology driven’ scenario, if an R&D program manages to increase the range and power of electric two-wheelers by 5% annually between FY 2023-24 and 2025-26 and 10% in FY 2026-2027 , then the penetration of electric-two-wheelers could reach around 72% in FY2031-32 – even without extension of demand incentives.

According to predictions, the sales of electric two-wheelers may cross 220 lakh units in FY 2028-29 under ‘optimistic’, ‘same performance’ and ‘battery cost challenged’ scenarios. This could reach up to 180 lakh units under the ‘technology-driven’ scenario. Under the ‘incentive drive’ scenario, sales are expected to reach only 5.5 million units in FY2031.

The report will also help in quantifying the requirements for building an electric two-wheeler ecosystem. It provides insight into the required infrastructure, manufacturing capacity, policies and technology-development priorities in the region.

Post All two wheelers in India to be electric by 2026-27: NITI Aayog First appeared on BGR India.

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